El Nino to take revenge: After 9 days of surplus rain, monsoon to weaken again

India's southwest monsoon has staged an impressive recovery, with the country's seasonal rainfall departure from normal improving to -14.3%, bringing it back into the 'Normal' category after weeks of widespread rainfall.

The turnaround comes as the country has recorded nine consecutive days of daily rainfall above the climatological average, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The latest surge has erased much of the severe rainfall deficit that developed during June when the monsoon stalled for nearly three weeks following its onset over Kerala. A succession of low-pressure systems over central India and the Bay of Bengal revived the monsoon circulation in early July, delivering widespread rain across western, central and northern India.

Daily mean rainfall has consistently remained above the long-period average since the beginning of July, helping replenish reservoirs, boost soil moisture and accelerate kharif sowing across several states.

However, meteorologists say the recovery could prove short-lived.

EL NINO TO STRIKE INDIAN MONSOON

Forecasts indicate a significant reduction in rainfall activity between July 10 and July 15 over north, west and central India, including the west coast, as the current low-pressure system weakens and moves away.

Satellite imagery also shows a reduction in widespread cloud cover over the country's core monsoon region.

The expected lull is likely to once again pull India's cumulative seasonal rainfall into the below-normal category by the middle of July, raising concerns for farmers who have sown paddy and other kharif crops during the recent spell of abundant rainfall.

Agricultural experts say the timing of rainfall is as important as the seasonal total. Newly sown rice and other rain-fed crops require continuous soil moisture during their early growth stages.

A prolonged break immediately after sowing could stress young plants, particularly in areas without irrigation. The evolving pattern is also consistent with El Nio conditions in the equatorial Pacific.

Unlike normal monsoon years, El Nio often causes long and frequent breaks in widespread rainfall, interrupting otherwise active phases of the monsoon.

Instead of delivering steady rain throughout the season, the atmosphere alternates between intense wet spells and prolonged dry periods.

While the recent rainfall surge has significantly improved India's seasonal water balance, meteorologists caution that the monsoon remains highly volatile.

Another active spell is expected later in July, but until then, much of the country's agricultural heartland will be watching the skies closely as the next phase of the season unfolds.

The coming week will therefore test whether the monsoon's remarkable comeback marks the beginning of a sustained recovery, or merely a temporary reprieve in what is shaping up to be another challenging El Nio monsoon year.